Premise (2) is ambiguous between:
2a. If God knows that p, then: (it is necessary that p).
2b. It is necessary that: (If God knows that p, then p).
But 2a is needed for the argument to be valid and 2b is what is true.
Analogies:
a. It’s obvious that: (if the 30th digit of pi is 9, then the 30th digit of pi is odd).
b. If the 30th digit of pi is 9, then: (it is obvious that the 30th digit of pi is odd).
a. It’s guaranteed
by the syllabus that: (if
b. If Alice is caught cheating, then: (it’s guaranteed by the syllabus that Alice gets a zero).
We can make past soft facts be. (E.g., voters in 2020 brought it about that Jill Jacobs in 1976 married the 46th president of the United States.) That God believed you will do A is equivalent to the fact that you will do A and hence is soft.
Suppose God wants the ants to survive, and would have moved them had it been the case that Paul would mow the lawn. That the ants were moved (or unmoved) is a hard fact. But it’s up to Paul!
When we say the past is fixed, we mean that various past truths are accidentally necessary.
p is accidentally necessary at t iff p is true at t and no possible action that an agent has the power to do at t necessarily implies that p is not true.
This allows the ant colony moving in to be accidentally necessary, and hence captures our intuition about the fixedness of the ant colony.
Suppose God announced that I will mow the lawn. If I don’t mow the lawn, that necessarily implies that God did not announce that I will mow the lawn since God cannot lie. So God’s announcement is not accidentally necessary by Plantinga’s definition. But it should be just as fixed as the ant colony case.
Stop thinking the past is fixed!